Economic and Demographic Trends of Natchitoches City & Parish (2003-2023)

Over the past 20 years, Natchitoches City and Parish have experienced population decline, economic stagnation, and higher-than-average poverty rates. While the region benefits from historical significance and the presence of Northwestern State University, economic and demographic data indicate serious challenges in workforce participation, income growth, and overall economic strength.

Several key indicators highlight the challenges facing the local economy:

1. Population decline in both the city and parish, indicating outmigration.
2. Median household income significantly lower than the Louisiana state average.
3. Higher-than-average poverty rates, particularly in the City of Natchitoches.
4. Lower labor force participation, reducing economic productivity.  This report examines population trends, labor force participation, income levels, and poverty rates, providing a detailed analysis of economic conditions.

Population Trends

Analysis

A declining population signals economic weakness, as outmigration often indicates a lack of opportunities. The fact that both Parish and city areas are shrinking suggests broad economic stagnation. If young professionals and working-age residents continue to leave, the remaining population will be older, limiting workforce participation and consumer spending.

Civilian Labor Force

The civilian labor force participation rate in Natchitoches Parish is 53.3%, which is below both the state and national averages.

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/natchitochesparishlouisiana

Northwestern State University’s Economic Impact: Enrollment and Employment Declines

Enrollment Trends: Declining Natchitoches Campus Presence

• Total NSU enrollment increased from 9,111 in 2008 to a peak of 11,447 in 2020, before dropping to 8,847 in 2023.
• Natchitoches campus enrollment has plummeted by 48% over the same period, from 4,404 in 2008 to 2,302 in 2023.
• In 2019, 39% of NSU students were based in Natchitoches; by 2023, only 26% remained.
• The steepest drop occurred between 2020 (3,704 students) and 2021 (3,016 students), accelerating the shift to online and off-campus enrollment.

Employment Trends: Shrinking University Workforce

• Total NSU employment fell from 1,107 in 2019 to 928 in 2023, a 16% workforce reduction.
• The largest job cuts occurred in 2023, when 122 positions were lost.

Economic Impact on Natchitoches

• Fewer students living in Natchitoches means reduced local spending on housing, food, and retail.
  Rental demand has declined, affecting landlords and property values.
• Fewer university jobs mean fewer high-income earners, reducing homeownership and disposable income in the area.
• Local businesses face lower revenues, potentially leading to closures or reduced operations.

Source: https://www.nsula.edu/oir

Summary

NSU’s on-campus student presence has nearly halved since 2008, and university employment has fallen by 16% in just four years. These declines weaken Natchitoches’ economy, reducing consumer spending, rental demand, and middle-class stability. Without intervention, the city risks further economic stagnation and population decline.

Impact of the International Paper Mill Closure in Campti, Louisiana

The closure of International Paper’s Campti mill will have significant economic consequences for Natchitoches Parish, eliminating 674 jobs—495 hourly and 179 salaried positions. As one of the parish’s largest employers, the mill’s shutdown will increase unemployment, reduce local spending, and weaken the tax base.

Expected Economic Impact

Job Loss and Rising Unemployment

• The loss of 674 manufacturing jobs will create a sharp rise in unemployment, particularly in a parish where only 53.3% of the working-age population is employed.
• Displaced workers may struggle to find comparable jobs locally, leading to long-term underemployment or workforce migration.

Reduced Consumer Spending and Business Strain

• Fewer stable wages will lead to declining revenue for local businesses, especially in retail, dining, and services.
• Economic downturns in similar rural communities have often resulted in small business closures or contractions.

Declining Tax Revenues and Public Funding

• The mill’s closure will reduce property and sales tax collections, affecting funding for schools, infrastructure, and public services.
• If workers relocate for new jobs, the loss of residents will further shrink the tax base

Potential Housing Market Effects

• Large-scale job losses in rural communities often reduce demand for housing, leading to longer vacancy periods and potential declines in property values.
• The extent of this impact will depend on whether displaced workers find new employment locally or move elsewhere.

As with past rural mill closures, some displaced workers will likely be absorbed into existing manufacturing employers such as Weyerhaeuser, Copeland, and RoyOMartin, though not all positions will match previous wages or benefits. Others, particularly older employees, may retire or exit the workforce, while a portion will relocate to other industrial job markets in search of stable employment. A smaller group may transition into new industries through retraining programs, though such efforts often have limited success in rural economies. Without targeted workforce assistance and economic diversification efforts, Natchitoches Parish could experience further population decline, reduced consumer spending, and long-term economic instability.

Conclusion

The International Paper mill’s closure represents a major economic setback for Natchitoches Parish. To mitigate long-term damage, local and state leaders must act quickly to:

• Provide job retraining and employment assistance for displaced workers.
• Support local businesses that will experience financial strain.
• Pursue economic diversification to replace lost jobs and stabilize the workforce

Without intervention, Natchitoches Parish risks further economic contraction, making recovery increasingly difficult.

Income Levels: Natchitoches vs. Louisiana

Region Median Household Income (2018-2022)
Louisiana (Statewide) $60,023
Natchitoches Parish $41,310
City of Natchitoches $34,020

Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/LA/POP060210

Data USA – Natchitoches, LA
http://www.datausa.io/profile/geo/natchitoches-la

Poverty Levels: Natchitoches vs. Louisiana

Region Poverty Rate (2019-2023)
Louisiana (Statewide) 18.9%
Natchitoches Parish 25.9%
City of Natchitoches 34.82%

Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/LA/POP060210

US News – Natchitoches Parish Healthiest Communities
http://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/louisiana/natchitoches-parish

World Population Review – Natchitoches, LA
http://www.worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/louisiana/natchitoches

Conclusion: The Strength of the Natchitoches Economy

The economic and demographic trends in Natchitoches City and Parish reveal a community facing significant challenges. Population decline, low workforce participation, high poverty rates, and a shrinking presence of Northwestern State University (NSU) on its home campus have already weakened the local economy. Now, the closure of International Paper’s Campti mill, eliminating 674 jobs, adds another major economic disruption that will ripple across businesses, housing, and tax revenues.

While NSU has maintained relatively stable overall enrollment, most of its students are not physically based in Natchitoches, meaning the university’s growth has not translated into local economic benefits. At the same time, NSU’s employment numbers have steadily declined, removing one of the most stable sources of middle-class wages in the region. Historically, university jobs and manufacturing positions have anchored Natchitoches’ economy, but both sectors are now shrinking.

Several key indicators highlight the urgency of action:

1. A declining Natchitoches-based student population, which has dropped 48% since 2008, reducing local business revenues, housing demand, and economic activity that typically comes with a thriving college town.

2. NSU employment falling 16% since 2019, further reducing middle-class wages, consumer spending, and tax revenue.

3. A labor force participation rate of just 53.3%, well below both state and national averages, indicating a need to increase workforce engagement and job opportunities.

4. A poverty rate of 34.82% in the city and 25.9% in the parish, significantly higher than Louisiana’s 18.9% average, signaling the need for stronger employment opportunities and economic mobility.

5. The International Paper closure, eliminating 674 jobs, adding immediate financial strain on families, reducing business revenues, and shrinking local tax collections.

6. Existing manufacturers in the region are hiring, presenting an opportunity to transition displaced workers into new roles, though not all positions may match previous wages and benefits.

Final Thoughts: The Path Forward for Natchitoches

While recent economic developments present significant challenges, they also provide a chance for reinvention. Natchitoches has two clear pathways: allow economic decline to continue, leading to population loss, business closures, and long-term stagnation, or take strategic action to strengthen its economy by leveraging NSU’s potential, expanding workforce development, and attracting new industries.

Rebuilding a Thriving College Town

One of the greatest opportunities for Natchitoches is reversing NSU’s student population decline and fully embracing its identity as a college town. Cities with vibrant, growing universities see higher business success rates, stronger housing markets, and more dynamic economies. If NSU can attract more students back to campus, it would generate increased consumer spending, greater housing demand, and job creation across multiple sectors.

To achieve this, Natchitoches should:

• Encourage NSU to expand student recruitment and retention efforts, particularly for on-campus programs.
• Invest in student life amenities and infrastructure to make Natchitoches a more attractive college destination.
• Foster stronger connections between NSU and local businesses, encouraging internships, student employment, and partnerships that keep students engaged in the community.
• Market Natchitoches as a true college town, with opportunities for students, alumni, and young professionals to live, work, and thrive locally.

Retaining and Transitioning Workers Post-Mill Closure

The International Paper closure will have a lasting economic impact, but existing manufacturers are hiring, offering alternative employment opportunities. Some workers will be absorbed into these companies, while others may require job retraining to remain in the workforce. Additionally, some displaced employees may retire or relocate, reducing the available labor pool for local businesses. Proactive workforce development programs could help ensure that more residents find stable employment locally, rather than leaving the region.

Economic Diversification and Future Growth

Beyond higher education and manufacturing, Natchitoches must diversify its economic base to build long-term sustainability. This includes:

• Attracting new industries such as logistics, healthcare, technology, and remote work hubs.
• Providing incentives for entrepreneurship and small business growth, encouraging local investment.
• Investing in infrastructure and broadband expansion, making Natchitoches more attractive for business development and digital workforce opportunities.

A Community at a Crossroads

Natchitoches is at a pivotal moment. The loss of industrial jobs, the decline of student-driven economic activity, and long-standing workforce participation challenges present real threats to the region’s economic future. However, with the right strategies, these challenges can be transformed into opportunities. By focusing on rebuilding NSU’s local student population, supporting displaced workers, and attracting new industries, Natchitoches can pivot toward a more resilient, future-ready economy.

Instead of viewing this as a moment of decline, local leaders, businesses, and residents should see it as a turning point—a chance to redefine what Natchitoches can become. By taking bold, proactive steps, the city and parish can stabilize, strengthen, and grow, ensuring that Natchitoches remains an economically vibrant and attractive place to live, work, and study for decades to come.

Jon Maynard, EDFP
Founder
Infinite Sequence Economics

About Infinite Sequence Economics
Infinite Sequence Economics (ISE) was founded by Jon Maynard to help communities grow and overcome challenges in economic development. Jon has worked in a large variety of economic markets, large and small, helping local leaders find solutions to barriers that slow down economic progress. ISE focuses on building strong local economies by supporting small businesses and entrepreneurs. Through research, community assessments, and hands-on support, ISE provides practical strategies to help communities succeed. With expertise in areas like aerial imagery and workforce development, ISE gives communities the tools they need for long-term growth.

Campti Mill Closure: An economic earthquake for Natchitoches Parish

Special Called Meeting to discuss impact of Campti Mill closure on School Board

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