Election day is just days away, and while we can’t make any final calls with just early voting results, there are some trends we can look at to see where things are headed as Saturday approaches. The parish had (as of October 20) 2,931 early and absentee votes in. The breakdowns here by party and race can give us a clue as to what we could expect to see after Saturday.
In the early voting period, we see 2931 totals votes cast. Of those, 1768 were white and 1,073 were black. In terms of party, 1,542 were Democrats, 942 were Republicans, and 447 were labeled as “other.”
In looking at these numbers, we can see a number of implications in some of the Natchitoches parish-wide races, but let’s look at two in particular (these are two that I’ve made endorses for at The Hayride, if you care to see) If these are reflective of the overall turnout, then that it is likely, but not guaranteed that David Stamey walks away from the Clerk of Court race without a run-off. However, assuming the turnout on election day is the same as the turnout during early voting turnout is a pretty big assumption.
The reason we can consider the possibility of Stamey winning the race outright is based on the racial turnout. If we assume that the white vote went almost entirely to Stamey, then roughly 60% of the vote goes to him, with the other 40% being split between the Louis Byers and Betty Sawyer Smith.
What’s not so easy to predict is the Parish President race. This is an instance where neither party nor race will really tell you the story here. What we do know is that the black community will likely be split between Rick Nowlin and John Salter, with more going toward Salter. The white vote will also be split, but in this case, more toward Nowlin because they will largely come from the City of Natchitoches. Rural whites that do turn out will likely lean toward Salter, but perhaps not in great numbers.
If that scares you as a Nowlin supporter, it should – go out and vote for him. John Salter is promising something he cannot deliver in repaired roads, and Nowlin’s budgetary changes in the parish are the best chance you’ve got of getting those roads fixed more quickly.
Of course, there’s also the fact that Salter has openly called for a return to the police jury system…