Joe Cunningham, III
David Vitter is going to win. I don’t say this as a partisan commentator. I don’t say this as a David Vitter supporter. I don’t even say this out of the sheer dislike for John Bel Edwards that I have. I say it as a matter of objective fact.
In just over a week, we as a state will be voting on our next governor. And by “we,” I of course mean the 40 or so percent who actually show up to the polls. In the primary, we had a statewide turnout of 38.5 percent of registered voters in the most important statewide race of the cycle. This is an off-year election – even with a gubernatorial race, there is going to be a low turnout.
The first reason why David Vitter is going to win is because Louisiana is a red state. At the end of the day, no matter what you say about Vitter’s sordid past, the fact is Louisiana doesn’t care about it so much that they will go out and vote Edwards – they’ll stay home. That’s the risk that Edwards runs with his negative ads. He’s not going to make people turn out, he’s going to make them stay home. More voters works in Edwards’ favor, but fewer voters means he’ll be watching a bunch of older, white Republican men go to the polls to keep someone like him from winning.
The second reason Vitter is going to win is because everyone has it so set in their mind Edwards is going to win based on polling. In Kentucky, a similar situation was brewing just a few weeks ago. Every poll had Matt Bevin, the Republican, down at least four points and set to lose the race. Every poll showed it, every pundit said he ran an awful campaign.
He won by eight points.
The methodologies being used in a lot of these polls are estimating a higher than should really be expected Democratic – and black – turnout. The numbers seem to me to be based on the idea that 2014 is a good baseline for turnout, when in reality, the baseline data from the 2014 year is an anomaly. We had a highly-publicized Senate race that would decide the fate of the U.S. Senate control. More people turned out for that than will likely turn out for this one.
And, speaking of black turnout, that’s another piece of the puzzle. Edwards is not going to get them out to vote in many areas of the state. He just skipped out on a black issues forum at Southern University out of fear of both confronting Vitter and fear of scaring white voters. It doesn’t matter that he’s done speaking events at Southern before, this was a candidates forum, with statewide candidates from several races appearing in order to talk about the issues. The top Democratic candidate in the state decided not to show.
The main reason I dislike Edwards is because of his opposition to school choice. Education is going to be the next great civil rights battle we fight as both a state and a nation, and Louisiana is going to be on the front line in that battle. School choice is the most effective way to get good kids out of failing schools, and Edwards opposes it. That is the final reason he is going to lose.
If I had to guess, I’d say it would be a close race. Vitter wins, maybe 52/48 and becomes the next governor. For better or worse.
Joe Cunningham is a conservative commentator, Front Page Editor at RedState.com, contributor to The Hayride, and a teacher in south Louisiana. You can find him on Twitter at @JoePCunningham and on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/jcunninghamwrites.
Legalize prostitution with Vitter! Thats the ticket! lol!
John Bel Edwards is for allowing these so call Syrian refugees many possibly terrorist to be located in Louisiana. Edwards supports the immigration policies of Obama and voted for him twice. If you call yourself a Conservative and can rationalize voting for Edwards you need some serious couch time.
A projection of the race based on early voting turnout, through Wednesday. This is not a poll but early voting results. The gist of the article is that (a) more black voters are voting in the runoff early voting than in the primary and (b) parishes with larger populations are voting heavily, with many seeing near 100% increases in early-voting turnout.
I do not know the political affiliation of the person reporting the polls and do not profess there is an established predictive link between early voting results and results for ballots cast on election day.
Here is the site: http://winwithjmc.com/archives/6863
“Vitter would not last one day at West Point” ~JB Edwards. Was the quote that sealed the deal for me. Mr Edwards feels compelled to sling as much mud as possible and try distracting people from the fact he is connected at the hip with Barack Hussein Obama. A man that will be written in history as the worst, most destructive, most decisive POTUS ever. Hillary will be an Obama clone. Mr Edwards apparently doesn’t realize his news flash about Vitter’s whoremongering is not news at all. We know this. This will not win you the election sir. Your record as a left wing flip flopping (Oil Pipeline) wack job will lose you the election.
If Vitter is elected, it will be another sad day for Louisiana.. This man has not said one thing about what he will do for Louisiana if elected.. Yes, we know he is the anti-Obama.. He opposes common core, wants to deport illegal immigrants.. and one of the only things I have heard him say, he voted to repeal Obamacare!! Great David… I like all of that myself.. But what are you going to do if elected? are you going to stay on the road like your buddy Bobby, wasting millions of taxpayer dollars doing the political dance?? Are you going to listen to the concerns of the residents of Louisiana or just the super pacs in Washington??
Mr Vitter, you were the first to sling mud in this race.. I cant count the calls, inserts in the mail, etc.. That liken Edwards to Obama.. Yes, he is a Democrat.. But he is also pro-gun.. He is also Pro life.. He has debated other candidates EVERY time they were scheduled.. Just the other night, he stayed around and talked to reporters after the debate, while luckily there was no one between you and the door.. I have looked at John Bel’s voting record in Baton Rouge.. There are some things I didn’t agree with how he did it, but they are actually few and far between.. You on the other hand have missed votes because of being with your republican buddies doing what it is yall do.. You and Bobby are so much alike, you would hold up critical things needed for this state because it doesn’t fit your parties political agenda..
You may have some people conned into thinking he and Obama are best buddies, but I see that is not the case.. I think Louisiana needs someone that will work with both sides and do what is best. You sir are not that man.. You have a political agenda to run. If you are elected, I see you dragging this state further into disarray that was started by your buddy Bobby.. I would also go on to say that one day, I do see you in jail like most Louisiana politicians.. You have already got a free pass when you were caught breaking the law by the deal with you and the prostitute.. To my knowledge, and this is just me, Mr Edwards hasn’t been caught breaking the law yet, I am sure you would have uncovered it by now.. Is that why you had the sheriff of Jefferson Parish under severance?? And the word is now he is bringing in the FBI to investigate it further when he caught your guy spying on him having lunch..
I am a no party voter that leans towards republican candidates on State level and National races.. We shouldn’t be looking at a party label when we vote but that is what it has become.. Lets hope this new poll that came out this morning showing Edwards with a 22 point lead are true and Joe Cunningham is wrong on this one..
Mr. Cunningham: You are a young man, much younger than me. You do not know what I know, nor have you seen what I have seen. This state has been brought to disaster by the likes of Republicans, namely Roemer , Foster,and Jindal. I am white (sort of) , a senior citizen, and very conservative. I would vote for a monkey before I’d vote for Vitter. Who are you trying to convince that Vitter will win , us , or yourself? He might very well win. But remember back when Jindal was going to beat Blanco and the Democrats pulled a rabbit (an extra 5% of the vote) out of their hat.
The main reason I don’t like Edwards because he voted for Obama twice and will support Hillary Clinton. Nothing more hypocritical than a Democrat using personal character to disqualify someone from holding public office. Oh one more thing, some those Politicians in those John Bel Edwards commercials at least Vitter did not put his whores on the payroll or use his position of authority to keep them out of jail.