By Gary McCollum
What are your chances of dying if you get infected by COVID 19? Despite information pouring in from many countries, they are still just estimating. No one has firm facts or figures. It has been reported that people suffering heart attacks may be included into the counts as well as others with co-morbidities (underlying health issues).
The risk depends on your age, sex, health and the care you receive and equipment available. In the United Kingdom (as of April 2, 2020 they had lost 2,921 people out of 33,718 “confirmed cases.” Roughly that equates to about 9 percent. Italy has approximately 12 percent although Germany is roughly 1 percent.
These figures and models don’t tell us what we really want to know: How many of people infected will die as a result of the infection? This is known as the infection mortality rate (also, Crude Case fatality Rates).
There are many unconfirmed cases of people that are currently asymptomatic, thus not meeting the threshold to be tested. There are many people who have already had the virus and have gotten over it. We aren’t testing the entire nation; therefore, we may overestimate the actual mortality rate. The more tests given, the more positive results we will see. As of this writing there are 1,379,825 confirmed COVID cases, 73,839 deaths and 277,640 recovered.
Our best defense is to continue to social distance. Stay at home, stay safe. Wash your hands frequently and wear some type of mask while out in public. Pray.
Here is a basic timeline of events I’ve tried to put together to make some sense of the event that shut down so much of the world.
God Bless our first responders, health care workers (including my wife), the grocery store employees and truck drivers. Thank you all for everything you do to make our lives a little better.
Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill
Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.
Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.
Dec. 30: Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.
Dec. 31: Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus’ spread.
China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil was trading at $63.85 per barrel. A good price, fuel prices were reasonable. T
he Stock Market was booming. The USA economy had NEVER been better.
Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.
An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.
Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus’ complete genetic information. This information is not made public for a full week, until Jan. 9.
Jan. 7: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launches its Coronavirus Incident Management System. Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.
Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome. (1 week after it had.)
Jan. 11–17: China reports the first coronavirus death. Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.
Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.
Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.”
Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.
Jan. 18: The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases.
Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck.
Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.
Jan. 20: The first case announced in South Korea.
Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese doctor who is helping to coordinate the coronavirus response, announces the virus can be passed between people.
Jan. 21: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
CCP flagship newspaper People’s Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi’s actions to fight it for the first time.
Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown.
Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.
Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.
U.S. state public health officials on both coasts claim there is no issue and encourage participation in Chinese New Year celebrations throughout the U.S. Denver cancels it’s festival.
Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan.
From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.
Jan. 27: Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar leads the first daily meeting of the President’s Coronavirus Task Force.
Jan. 29: President Trump chairs his task force and then identifies its members. Among them: Azar, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield, and Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci. Fauci, an internationally recognized immunologist, has led the institute since 1984 under Democratic and Republican presidents
Jan. 30: The World Health Organization proclaims the coronavirus outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today confirmed that the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread between two people in the United States
Jan. 31: Azar declares “a public health emergency in the United States.”
US President Donald J. Trump announced that foreign nationals who had traveled to China in the past 14 days would be denied entry into the United States.
Biden denounces this “hysterical xenophobia.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., calls this “just an excuse to further his [Trump’s] ongoing war against immigrants.” At the time, the virus — which originated in the Wuhan province — had begun to spread throughout the communist nation with little or no control.
Feb. 5: As expected for months, the Senate acquits Trump on two articles of impeachment, finally derailing a Democratic-built effort to overturn the 2016 election that distracted America while this pandemic incubated.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping confer by phone. Trump promises $100 million to help China and other coronavirus-plagued nations.
The CDC ships coronavirus test kits to some 100 U.S. laboratories.
Feb. 11: The WHO brands COVID-19, short for “coronavirus disease 2019.”
Feb. 22-24: The CDC discourages travel to and from Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
Feb. 25: Mardi Gras and thousands have converged on New Orleans and many other southern communities to celebrate Mardi Gras.
Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday) takes place on the day before Ash Wednesday—the beginning of the Christian observance of Lent
There are no Social distancing recommendations by state, city officials.
Feb. 26: Trump assigns Vice President Mike Pence to spearhead anti-COVID-19 efforts. CNN attacks the “lack of diversity” in the Coronavirus Task Force
Feb. 29: Fauci later praises Trump’s “original decision” restricting entry into the U.S. He tells journalists on “If we had not done that, we would have had many, many more cases right here that we would have to be dealing with.”
The Food and Drug Administration frees health diagnostics companies LabCorp, Quest and others to develop coronavirus tests and liberates states to engage some 2,000 such laboratories.
WTI Oil prices are falling, prices on Feb 29th are $53.35
Stock Markets are falling, Investors were spooked by news about the spread of the coronavirus and fled to safe-haven assets.
The S&P 500 fell by 8.23 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 9.75 percent.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 6.27 percent.
Despite rising numbers in both coronavirus infections and fatalities, China refused offers of assistance from two of the foremost agencies on infectious disease. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been offering to send a team of experts from its Epidemic Intelligence Service for more than a month to no avail. And the World Health Organization has also met resistance to travel to Wuhan, where the outbreak started
Bloomberg news, who first cited the news, stated that three U.S. intelligence officers said they alerted the White House last week to Beijing’s misleading numbers. Two of the three called the numbers flat-out fake.
March 3: President Trump donated his $100,000 quarterly salary to the Department of Health and Human Services to bolster its war on COVID-19.
March 4: Trump meets with health insurance company leaders. They agree to cost-free COVID-19 tests.
The Coronavirus Task Force urges nursing homes to limit family visits to shield at-risk seniors from the virus.
March 5: Oil prices are down more than 20% since the start of the year as the economic impact of the coronavirus saps oil demand.
Saudi and Russia meet to discuss cutting the global supply of oil to aid in propping up prices.
“OPEC +” dissolves as Russia makes a bid to increase it’s market share, in response Riyadh increased it’s production, causing oil prices to plummet.
March 6: Trump signs legislation providing $8.3 billion to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.
March 9: On March 9, the state’s first presumptive case of coronavirus was reported in New Orleans.
March 11: Trump restricts arrivals from Europe, which reels beneath this disease.
The impact of cancelling transatlantic flights between the US and Europe is a direct loss of about 600,000 barrels per day per month in jet fuel demand.
Faced with concerns and uncertainties over COVID-19 (coronavirus) and the impact on its games, its business and its extended family of players, coaches and fans, the NBA suspended the 2019-20 season Wednesday until further notice
March 12: Oil prices drop as much as 8% as crude continues to take a hit on both the supply and demand side.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now down more than 25% this week, putting it on track for its worst week since December 2008, and its third largest weekly decline on record.
On Thursday WTI fell $1.48, or 4.49%, to settle at $31.50 per barrel. Earlier in the session it traded as low as $30.02.
International benchmark Brent crude fell $2.51, or 7%, to trade at $33.31 per barrel.
Oil companies begin shutting down drilling operations and laying off thousands of people.
The stock market follows suit with additional selloffs as investors seek safe havens.
March 13: Trump declares a national emergency, unleashes $42 billion, waives student loan interest, deregulates to promote telemedicine, allows doctors to practice across state lines, and approves rules changes to make it easier for hospitals to hire new physicians.
Trump meets with Costco, Walmart and other private retailers. They soon launch drive-through COVID-19 tests.
The FDA lets Roche and Thermo Fisher produce COVID-19 tests.
Governor Edwards issued an order prohibiting gathering of more than 250 people, and the closure of all K-12 public schools from March 16 to April 13
March 15: Trump confers with grocers, who agree to stay open.
March 16: Phase 1 clinical trials begin on the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate, just 64 days after China isolated its genome on Jan. 12. “This is record time for the development of a vaccine,” says FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, resulting from “an impressive public/private partnership.”
March 17: “I spoke to the president this morning, again. He is ready, willing, and able to help,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo, D-N.Y., said March 17. “His team is on it. They have been responsive late at night, early in the morning. And thus far, they have been doing everything that they can do, and I want to say thank you, and I want to say that I appreciate it.”
March 18: Trump signs financial relief for COVID-19’s economic casualties.
This bill’s liability protection emboldens 3M, Honeywell, and others to market N95 industrial masks for medical use.
Trump presses Navy hospital ships Comfort and Mercy into action.
March 19: Trump announces that Carnival Cruise Lines has offered to allow idled cruise ships to be used as hospitals.
March 20: Trump postpones Tax Day from April 15 to July 15, for filing and payment.
Trump suspended foreclosures on Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages, proposed sending payments to economically stressed families and individuals.
Trump triggers the Defense Production Act to require companies to manufacture indispensable supplies needed to vanquish COVID-19.
Trump and his colleagues’ labors finally have earned some of his harshest critics’ respect:
President Trump “is being the kind of leader that people need at least in tone … in times of crisis and uncertainty,” said CNN reporter Dana Bash.
“He said everything I could have hoped for,” Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., remarked about his discussions with Trump. “We had a very long conversation, and every single thing he said, they followed through on.”
“Politics aside, this is incredible and the right response in this critical time,” said, via Twitter, none other than Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., usually one of Trump’s harshest critics.
March 22 – 26: Governor Edwards announced a statewide stay-at-home order effective until April 12.
Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New Orleans that Archbishop Gregory Aymond had tested positive for coronavirus.
According to the Governor, there were 923 ventilators across the state, with slightly over 10% of them being used for coronavirus patients in the state.
Governor Edwards issued a request for a disaster declaration and federal aid in the state, projecting that New Orleans could exceed its hospital capacity by April 4.
March 26 – 27: The total number of reported confirmed cases in the United States surpasses that of China with over 85,000 cases, making it the country with the highest number of coronavirus patients, in the world.
Congress passes a 2 Trillion-dollar Coronavirus Aid Package
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) expands a previous order requiring airline travelers from New York City to self-quarantine for fourteen days to include people who enter from Louisiana via Interstate 10
March 30 – April 4: Spring break occurs throughout the nation.
Students travel to vacation resorts in Florida, Texas and Mexico.
44 Spring breakers in Austin Tx have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating.
Governor John Bell Edwards extends stay at home order until April 30th
New Orleans has a death rate from COVID-19 that is twice that of New York City and four times that in Seattle. Health officials say obesity, diabetes, and hypertension are to blame.
On April 4, an article stated that St. John the Baptist Parish had “the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the nation
Governor Greg Abbot (R) Texas, institutes Checkpoints to screen vehicles on all roads entering Texas from Louisiana as of Sunday, April 5, according to Louisiana State Police.
These checkpoints are designed to prevent people from the state of Louisiana from spreading the coronavirus in Texas.
Rest easy my friends. God is in control.
There are trained counselors available 24/7 for anyone feeling stressed about COVID-19. These are trained professionals and all calls are confidential. The number is 1-866-310-7977