Thus far portions of Northeast Texas and Southeast Oklahoma have received about three inches of rain mainly from Idabel to Clarksville overnight. Rainfall is forecast to continue and shift east today through the weekend. At this time, our flash flood guidance suggests that between 3 to 4 inches of rainfall per hour is necessary for flash flooding to occur. At worst, even with prolonged rainfall we would need upward of 6 inches in a 6 hour period to experience flash flooding problems. Therefore, we are holding off on any type of flash flood watch at this time based on the fact that our dry soils can manage a substantial amount of rainfall through the weekend.
However, there are a number of uncertainties in the timing and placement of precipitation through early next week. One of these uncertainties is what becomes of the remnants of Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific ocean. Moisture from this storm is forecast to stream northeast and will maintain a wet forecast across the region through possibly Tuesday. There are many different model solutions as to the nature of Patricia’s characteristics after traversing across Mexico and its reentry into the Gulf of Mexico (should that occur). At this time, we will continue to monitor this evolving event and if necessary will follow-up should the situation warrant.