Tropical Storm Watches Issued, Heavy Rainfall Likely Across Central U.S. Through Mid-Week

Tropical Outlook

All eyes will be on a Tropical Wave moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Labor Day. The official National Hurricane Center forecast takes the system northwest towards the Louisiana Gulf Coast and towards the Four State Region, where a locally heavy rain threat could begin impacting portions of the Four State Region by the end of the week.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 03 2018 – 00Z Wed Sep 05 2018

…Continued thunderstorms with severe and flash flooding potential are
expected for portions of the Plains to Upper Midwest…

…Widespread rain is forecast across the Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley…

…A potential tropical cyclone could cause heavy rainfall for southern
Florida on Monday…

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are possible in parts
of the Plains to the Upper Midwest over the next couple of days. A
stalling front will linger across these areas on Monday before another
cold front approaches on Tuesday, creating more possibilities for rain as
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains in the area. Many of these areas
have already seen excessive rainfall recently, and river flooding is
ongoing in some locations. Any additional rainfall will exacerbate the
ongoing flooding. Slight to moderate risks of flash flooding are in effect
through the beginning of the week. The Storm Prediction Center has parts
of the Central Plains outlooked with a slight risk for severe weather as
well.

Convergence along the Gulf Coast and copious amounts of moisture will lead
to continued heavy rain and thunderstorms along the upper Texas and
Louisiana coast on Sunday night. The heavy rainfall could produce flash
flooding, especially in urban areas. The plume of ample moisture is
expected to shift a bit west on Monday and Tuesday. The moisture and an
upper-level trough just to the west will combine to produce widespread
rain over parts of the Southern Plains. Slight risks of excessive
rainfall/flash flooding are in effect for western Texas on Monday and
Tuesday. Though conditions have generally been dry there, enough rain
falling in one location could still cause flash flooding.

A potential tropical cyclone is forecast to form near the Florida Keys on
Sunday night. This potential tropical cyclone plus plenty of tropical
moisture will create a heavy rain threat for the Florida peninsula on
Monday, particularly in southern Florida. The cyclone is forecast to
continue moving northwestward and approach the central Gulf Coast by
Tuesday night. Please see the National Hurricane Center’s website for
additional information on this potential tropical cyclone.